Last updated July 7, 2026

Benchmarking Medical Trend Assumptions

The gap between carrier-proposed rate actions on Health and Dental benefits and the premium level calculated by brokers can largely be explained by differences in the assumed trend rate. Carriers typically use rates greater than 10%, which overstate expected per-capita medical inflation. Actual experience sits at a materially lower level.

Below are datapoints, with sources, covering the post-COVID years to today that your firm can use when modeling and defending its expected trend assumption in renewal negotiations.

2026 Health and Dental Claims Cost Inflation Proxies Drug trend, dental fee guide, paramedical charges, 2026 forecast
+3.70%
Year Drug Spend / Claimant Dental Fee Guide Paramedical Charges Weighted Average5
2026 +4.09%1 +3.36%2 +3.47%34 +3.70%

Sources

  1. Telus Health, 2026 Drug Data Trends & National Benchmarks ↗ April 2026 Eligible amount per claimant, 2026 forecast (p. 11).
  2. Convyta, Dental Fee Guide Increases for 2026 ↗ 2026 Provincial general practitioner fee guide changes for 2026. Population-weighted using Statistics Canada provincial population estimates (71-607-X ↗).
  3. iA Financial, 2026 Reasonable & Customary Fees Bulletin ↗ November 2025 2026 paramedical hourly charge schedule, compared against 2025 bulletin.
  4. iA Financial, 2025 Reasonable & Customary Fees Bulletin ↗ November 2024 2025 paramedical hourly charge schedule.
  5. CLHIA, Canadian Life & Health Insurance Facts 2025 ↗ 2025 2024 supplementary health benefits paid: drugs $16.6B, dental $12.6B, EHS $9.2B, totalling $38.4B. Used to weight the Average column (43.2% drugs, 32.8% dental, 24.0% paramedical).
Health and Dental Claims Cost Inflation Proxies Drug trend, dental fee guide, paramedical charges, 2023 to 2026, 4-year average
+4.33%
Year Drug Spend / Claimant Dental Fee Guide Paramedical Charges Weighted Average9
2023 -0.60%2 +7.83%3 +4.92%87 +3.49%
2024 +8.88%12 +4.86%3 +5.95%76 +6.86%
2025 +3.20%1 +3.18%3 +3.50%65 +3.27%
2026 +4.09%1 +3.36%3 +3.47%54 +3.70%
4-yr average +3.89% +4.81% +4.46% +4.33%

Sources

  1. Telus Health, 2026 Drug Data Trends & National Benchmarks ↗ April 2026 Eligible amount per claimant for 2023, 2024, 2025 (p. 11).
  2. Telus Health, 2023 Drug Data Trends Report ↗ April 2023 Eligible amount per claimant for 2020, 2021, 2022 (p. 20).
  3. Convyta, Dental Fee Guide Increases for 2026 ↗ 2026 Provincial general practitioner fee guide changes for 2023 through 2026. Population-weighted using Statistics Canada provincial population estimates (71-607-X ↗).
  4. iA Financial, 2026 Reasonable & Customary Fees Bulletin ↗ November 2025 2026 paramedical hourly charge schedule.
  5. iA Financial, 2025 Reasonable & Customary Fees Bulletin ↗ November 2024 2025 paramedical hourly charge schedule.
  6. iA Financial, 2024 Reasonable & Customary Fees Bulletin ↗ November 2023 2024 paramedical hourly charge schedule.
  7. iA Financial, 2023 Reasonable & Customary Fees Bulletin ↗ November 2022 2023 paramedical hourly charge schedule.
  8. iA Financial, 2022 Reasonable & Customary Fees Bulletin ↗ November 2021 2022 paramedical hourly charge schedule.
  9. CLHIA, Canadian Life & Health Insurance Facts 2025 ↗ 2025 2024 supplementary health benefits paid: drugs $16.6B, dental $12.6B, EHS $9.2B, totalling $38.4B. Used to weight the Average column (43.2% drugs, 32.8% dental, 24.0% paramedical).
Per Capita Trend in Canadian Group Benefits Spend Benefits Canada Top 20 Insurance Providers total premium vs Canadian employment trends, 2020-2025, 5-year average
+4.68%
Year Premium ($B) Premium Growth Employment (M) Employment Growth Per Capita Trend
2020 45.025 n/a 15.346 n/a n/a
2021 49.054 +8.94% 16.316 +6.37% +2.42%
2022 53.803 +9.68% 17.116 +4.86% +4.60%
2023 59.182 +10.01% 17.686 +3.37% +6.42%
2024 63.741 +7.70% 18.066 +2.12% +5.47%
2025 67.571 +6.01% 18.326 +1.45% +4.50%
5-yr average n/a +8.47% n/a +3.63% +4.68%

Sources

  1. Benefits Canada, 2026 Group Benefits Providers Report ↗ May 2026 Provides 2025 and 2024 Top-20 totals.
  2. Benefits Canada, 2025 Group Benefits Providers Report ↗ May 2025 Provides 2023 Top-20 total.
  3. Benefits Canada, 2024 Group Benefits Providers Report ↗ May 2024 Provides 2022 Top-20 total.
  4. Benefits Canada, 2023 Group Benefits Providers Report ↗ May 2023 Provides 2021 Top-20 total.
  5. Benefits Canada, 2022 Group Benefits Providers Report ↗ May 2022 Provides 2020 Top-20 total.
  6. Statistics Canada, Table 14-10-0027-01: Employment by class of worker, annual.
    www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1410002701 ↗ Annual total Canadian employment, 2020 to 2025.
Surveys of Global Benefits Brokerage Firms Aon, WTW, Mercer published Canadian healthcare trend surveys 2023-2026, 4-year average
+6.40%
Year Aon WTW Mercer Average
2023 +7.50%1 +4.00%5 +9.00%7 +6.83%
2024 +5.00%2 +4.10%6 +7.00%7 +5.37%
2025 +7.40%3 +5.40%6 +6.90%7 +6.57%
2026 +8.30%4 +3.60%6 +8.60%7 +6.83%
4-yr average +7.05% +4.28% +7.88% +6.40%

Sources

  1. Aon, 2023 Global Medical Trend Rates Report ↗ Canada projected medical trend for 2023.
  2. Aon, 2024 Global Medical Trend Rates Report ↗ Canada projected medical trend for 2024.
  3. Aon, 2025 Global Medical Trend Rates Report ↗ Canada projected medical trend for 2025.
  4. Aon, 2026 Global Medical Trend Rates Report ↗ Canada projected medical trend for 2026.
  5. WTW, 2025 Global Medical Trends Survey ↗ Canada projected medical trend for 2023.
  6. WTW, 2026 Global Medical Trends Survey ↗ Canada projected medical trends for 2024, 2025, and 2026.
  7. Mercer Marsh Benefits, 2026 Health Trends Report ↗ Canada medical trend for 2023 through 2026. The 2023, 2024, and 2025 values are revised figures from the 2026 edition's 2019 to 2026 historical chart (p. 5) and may differ from each year's original projection.